A Budget that is austere would defy India's history


India\'s Finance Minister P. Chidambaram could defy history if he presents a largely austere 2013/14 Budget on Feb. 28, ahead of general elections next year.

* A Standard Chartered analysis shows that since the 1990s, spending invariably rises in the two years leading up to a general election.

* For example, the government during 1991-96 cut average real expenditure by an annualised 4 percent in the first two years of its term, but raised it by 3.6 percent in the final three years, Stanchart says.

* The trajectory was similar for the governments in power from 1999-2004 (2.8 percent versus 9.0 percent) and 2004-09 (-1.9 percent versus 14 percent), the lender says.

* The biggest welfare move expected in the current budget is the food security bill, which will likely raise annual food subsidies to 1.12 trillion from 750 billion rupees now, almost a 50 pct hike, Stanchart predicts, quoting government estimates.

Please read our terms of use before posting comments
TERMS OF USE: The views expressed in comments published on indianexpress.com are those of the comment writer's alone. They do not represent the views or opinions of The Indian Express Group or its staff. Comments are automatically posted live; however, indianexpress.com reserves the right to take it down at any time. We also reserve the right not to publish comments that are abusive, obscene, inflammatory, derogatory or defamatory.