Credit Suisse cuts India FY13, FY14 growth forecasts on delayed RBI response

Credit Suisse

International brokerage Credit Suisse today cut its FY13 growth estimate for the country by a notch to 5.9 per cent attributing it to delay by the Reserve Bank in cutting rates to prop up growth.

The brokerage also lowered its FY14 growth forecast to 6.9 per cent from the earlier 7.2 per cent.

"This largely reflects the delayed RBI rate response, although we continue to stress that our projections are above those of the consensus," the firm said in a note on the reasons for lowering the 2012-13 estimate by 10 basis points.

In the first half of the fiscal, the economy grew by 5.4 per cent. The government has projected growth between 5.5 and 6 per cent this fiscal.

Credit Suisse expects the RBI, which has been holding on to its elevated rates despite concerns over growth, citing the high inflation, to cut rates by 0.50 per cent only in January and not in the upcoming mid-quarter policy review on December 18, the note said.

Credit Suisse also said it expects further rate cuts of up to 0.75 per cent by next July, post the rate cut in January.

A slew of rating agencies, development finance institutions and think-tanks have been lowering their respective growth estimates for India through the year for a variety of global and domestic reasons.

The rating agencies have also called for immediate action on the high fiscal deficit and growth aspects or risk being downgraded to junk status.

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