India's GDP growth likely to be at 5.2 pct in 2013: UNCTAD

BusinessThe growth rate is expected to moderately decline to about 7.6 pct in 2013 from 7.8 pct last year. Reuters

The Indian economy is likely to grow at 5.2 per cent in 2013 calendar year on the back of rising domestic demand, says a report by UN agency UNCTAD.

In its release of Trade and Development Report 2013, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said the Indian economy is expected grow at 5.2 per cent in calendar year 2013 as against 3.8 per cent in 2012.

UNCTAD's India growth forecast at 5.2 per cent for 2013 is however lower than the International Monetary Fund's projection of 5.6 per cent for the year.

In case of China, the UNCTAD report said, the growth rate is expected to moderately decline to about 7.6 per cent in 2013 from 7.8 per cent last year.

"Growth in some large developing economies such as India, Brazil, Argentina and Turkey, which was subdued in 2012 is forecast to accelerate in 2013," the report said.

Developing nations continue to be the main drivers of growth, contributing about two-thirds of global growth in 2013. In many of them, growth has been driven more by domestic demand than by exports, as external demand, particularly from developed countries has remained weak, it said.

Developing countries may grow at a rate of 4.5-5 per cent in 2013, similar to 2012, it added.

However, several other developing economies including South Africa seem unlikely to be able to maintain their previous year's growth rates.

"Their expected growth deceleration partly reflects the accumulated effect of continuing sluggishness in developed economies and lower prices for primary commodity exports. Also, the decreasing policy stimuli which were relatively weak would affect the growth," it said.

The combination of these factors may also affect China's growth rate, which is expected to slow down moderately from 7.8 per cent in 2012 to about 7.6 per cent in 2013, it said, adding, "even though this would be only a mild deceleration, it is likely to disappoint many of China's trading partners."

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