Monsoon rains to reach Kerala coast on June 3
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday predicted that south-western monsoon (June-September) is set to arrive at Kerala coast on June 3rd which is expected to bring cheer to farmers across the country.
The forecast comes with an error margin of four days, which implies that monsoon rains could enter the country during June 3 – 7. The monsoon onset over Kerala implies the beginning of the rainy season over the Indian subcontinent which helps the sowing of kharif crop.
"After the actual onset of monsoon rains over Kerala, we will give advance sequence of its progress across the country," D S Pai, head of long range monsoon forecast of IMD told FE.
According to an IMD statement, the southwest monsoon normally advances over Andaman sea around 20th May with a standard deviation of about one week.
"This year under the influence of tropical cyclone 'Mahasen' currently located over the central Bay of Bengal, this may lead to advance of monsoon over Andaman Sea slightly earlier than its normal date," IMD said.
Since 2005, IMD has been been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon on set over Kerala using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of 4 days
Last month, Science and Technology minister S Jaipal Reddy while releasing the first long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon by the IMD had stated that the monsoon this year is most likely to be 'normal'.
According to met department, the quantitative seasonal rainfall during the southwest monsoon months (June-September) is likely to be 98% of the long-period average (LPA) or the average countrywide annual rainfall (89 cm) recorded between 1951 and 2000.
In April last year, the IMD had predicted normal rainfall of 99% of the LPA for the four monsoon months while the actual rainfall turned out to be only 92% of the LPA, leading to many parts of the country, including Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka, facing drought-like conditions.