The great inflection
President Obama's first term was absorbed by dealing with the Great Recession. I hope that in his second term he'll be able to devote more attention to the Great Inflection.
Dealing with the Great Recession was largely about "Yes We Can" — about government, about what we can and must do "together" to shore up the safety nets and institutions that undergird our society and economy. Obama's Inaugural Address was a full-throated defence of that "public" side of the unique public-private partnership that makes America great. But, if we're to sustain the kind of public institutions and safety nets that we're used to, it will require a lot more growth by the private side (not just more taxes), a lot more entrepreneurship, a lot more start-ups and a lot more individual risk-taking — things the president rarely speaks about. And it will all have to happen in the context of the Great Inflection.
What do I mean by the Great Inflection? I mean something very big happened in the last decade. The world went from connected to hyperconnected in a way that is impacting every job, industry and school, but was largely disguised by post-9/11 and the Great Recession. In 2004, I wrote a book, called The World Is Flat, about how the world was getting digitally connected. When I wrote that book, Facebook, Twitter, cloud computing, LinkedIn, 4G wireless, ultra-high-speed bandwidth, big data, Skype, system-on-a-chip (SOC) circuits, iPhones, iPods, iPads and cellphone apps didn't exist, or were in their infancy.
Today, not only do all these things exist, but, in combination, they've taken us from connected to hyperconnected. Now, notes Craig Mundie, one of Microsoft's top technologists, not just elites, but virtually everyone everywhere has, or will have soon, access to a hand-held computer/ cellphone, which can be activated by voice or touch, connected via the cloud to infinite applications and storage, so they can work, invent, entertain, collaborate and learn for less money than ever before. Alas, though, every boss now also has cheaper, easier, faster access to more above-average software, automation, robotics, cheap labour and cheap genius than ever before. That means the old average is over. Everyone who wants a job now must demonstrate how they can add value better than the new alternatives.