Two nightmares foretold

If Modi leads the ruling alliance in 2014, he will have to deal with decentralisation in national politics and centralisation in state politics.

Despite the astounding showing of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi, the recent state elections make it somewhat more likely that Narendra Modi will be the next prime minister. Only somewhat, however. Major impediments remain, not least the allergy of many potential allies to Modi himself. But if he succeeds, two structural changes in Indian politics will present him with twin nightmares.

Nightmare number one is the decentralisation in national politics. Since 1989, when it became impossible for any single party to gain a Lok Sabha majority, massive powers have flowed away from the once-dominant prime minister's office to other institutions in New Delhi, and to governments and parties at the state level. So power has been greatly decentralised, and new processes have emerged that often enable those at the state level to get their way.

And yet, Modi is an arch-centraliser who systematically destroys such processes to get his way. This is why he has been likened to Indira Gandhi by Pratap Bhanu Mehta and other commentators. He will try to undo the post-1989 changes and reassert the PMO's dominance.

At the very least, this would trigger almighty battles that prevent his government from achieving much. That would destroy one of his main claims to power, his reputation as a doughty doer of great deeds. At worst, with far less than half of the Lok Sabha seats controlled by the BJP, it could wreck his government within a year or two. His famously forceful ways would bear most of the blame, a virtue turned to vice.

However, if he tries to avoid this by moderating his aggressive behaviour, he would squander his key appeal to many voters: his reputation as a dynamic man of action.

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