Worsening bank asset quality poses near-term risk to India, says IMF but RBI disagrees
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Indian economy faces near-term risks of worsening bank asset quality and pressures on systemic liquidity, an IMF report has said.
The Indian financial system is becoming more complex, with inter-linkages across institutions and borders, the report 'India: Financial System Stability Assessment Update', based on figures available till February 2012, said.
"The main near-term risks to the financial system are a worsening of bank asset quality and renewed pressures on systemic liquidity," the report said.
"However, stress tests did not reveal near-term stability concerns, suggesting the banking system would be resilient to a range of adverse shocks," it added.
India has made remarkable progress towards developing a stable financial system but confronts a build-up of financial sector vulnerabilities, it said.
The areas for improvement include greater de jure independence of regulatory agencies, consolidated supervision of financial conglomerates and reductions in the large exposures and related-party lending limits in banks.
The report also listed stronger valuation and solvency requirements in insurance, and the monitoring of corporations- compliance with reporting, auditing, and accounting
requirements for issuers as areas for improvement.
It also added that the regulatory and supervisory regime for banks, insurance, and securities markets is well developed and largely in compliance with international standards.
The prominent role of the state in the financial sector contributes to a build-up of fiscal contingent liabilities and creates a risk of capital misallocation that may constrain economic growth, the report said.
Gradually reducing mandatory holdings of government securities by financial institutions, and allowing greater access to private (domestic and foreign) sources of capital, would provide more room for the financial sector to intermediate funds towards productive economic activities, thereby improving prospects for sustained growth.
The report said that "steps are needed to promote deeper fixed income markets, including a prudent reduction in banks' minimum statutory holdings of government bonds in line with evolving international liquidity requirements".